High confidence
Not enough resolutions yetHitHeld
MissHeld
PartialHeld
Cyber Decision Ledger · calibration
Prediction outcomes, without a leaderboard.
Calibration compares approved Prediction resolutions against the evidence record, the signal family, and the confidence tier that was on the claim. It is descriptive accountability: no analyst ranking, no contributor ranking, no single trust score.
2Approved Prediction resolutions
1Accuracy outcomes
1Lifecycle exits
Corpus-wide, from one projection · as of
Accuracy outcomes
Hit0
Miss1
Partial0
Lifecycle exits
Superseded0
Abandoned1
Confidence calibration
Confidence buckets are verbal only; small buckets stay withheld.
Moderate confidence
Not enough resolutions yetHitHeld
MissHeld
PartialHeld
Low confidence
Not enough resolutions yetHitHeld
MissHeld
PartialHeld
Prediction signal families
Families appear only after the minimum public bucket size is reached.
No reviewed signal-family calibration yet.