Decision RecordActivePublished without chair review

Replace Coldcard seeds generated with weak entropy

Coldcard seed replacement after weak entropy

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Confidence
High
Section support
High confidence · 0/8 backed · 2 gaps · panel
Severity
High
Assessed severity
Panel
AI roles · 1 disagreement
Freshness · v1
Last updated 1 day ago
Last revised 2026-08-18
Active4 evidence references · Published 18 Aug 2026 · Daily RoundtableServer-rendered freshness may trail the latest update by the page cache window.
Current position

Treat potentially affected seeds as a high-severity exposure. Generate replacement seeds on corrected or otherwise trusted hardware, verify recovery offline, and migrate funds promptly rather than relying on a firmware update alone.

Public guidance

Current public guidance · the full record

Current public value version · v1
01

What to do now

At a glance

The edition's authoritative action board carries no action for this record's subjects — no What to do now guidance.

02

Why now

Under review

On August 18, 2026, the Roundtable synthesis identified Coldcard as the day’s most irreversible risk because weak entropy persists in an existing seed and every derived key.

The defense guidance states that corrected firmware affects future generation only, so waiting for an update does not remediate funds still controlled by a potentially affected seed.

The action can proceed now—inventory, replacement, offline recovery testing, and migration—even while the exact Coinkite model and firmware boundaries await confirmation from the missing authoritative advisory.

03

Who is affected

Under review

Coldcard Mk2/Mk3 holders whose seeds were created on firmware 4.0.1–4.1.9 may have weak-entropy seeds and derived keys; Mk2/Mk3 4.0.0 holders require conservative review because one investigation includes that version.

Coldcard Mk4/Mk5 holders whose seeds were created before 5.6.0 or Edge 6.6.0X face the same persistent seed-and-key exposure. Coldcard Q holders whose seeds were created before 1.5.0Q or Edge 6.6.0QX face the same exposure.

Holders relying on at least 50 independent private dice rolls or a strong, unique BIP-39 passphrase need evidence that they meet Coinkite’s authoritative qualification before excluding their seeds.

For each group, installing newer firmware does not change an existing seed; funds controlled by its derived keys remain the operational concern until migrated.

04

What supports this

Under review

Support — The August 18, 2026 crypto-finance contribution reports that Coinkite’s advisory identifies Mk2/Mk3 firmware 4.0.1–4.1.9, Mk4/Mk5 before 5.6.0 or Edge 6.6.0X, and Q before 1.5.0Q or Edge 6.6.0QX as potentially affected; it also reports the dice-roll and BIP-39 passphrase qualifications and flags Mk2/Mk3 4.0.0 for conservative review.

Support — The defense architect states that affected seeds must be replaced on corrected or trusted hardware and funds migrated immediately because firmware cannot repair a seed already generated with weak entropy.

Support — The final synthesis identifies Coldcard as the day’s most irreversible risk and says affected seeds require replacement rather than patching alone.

Support — The evidence assessment confirms that the cited material directly supports inventorying creation-time firmware, creating a new seed, testing recovery offline, and migrating promptly.

Evidence gap — A separate evidence assessment finds that the authoritative vendor advisory is missing, so exact execution scope is not directly verified.

05

How the Roundtable reached this

Under review

The crypto-finance analysis surfaced Coinkite’s reported firmware ranges, the dice-roll and BIP-39 passphrase qualifications, and the conflicting Mk2/Mk3 4.0.0 signal.

The defense architect converted that finding into an operational sequence: create a new seed on corrected or trusted hardware, verify recovery, and migrate funds because an update cannot repair an existing seed.

The evidence assessment supported that core sequence but found that the authoritative Coinkite advisory was absent, preventing direct verification of the exact boundaries. The boundary review therefore preserved the replacement action while requiring vendor confirmation of scope.

A linkage check found no prior Decision Record, and the arbiter selected a new operational decision because the missing advisory affects scope rather than the remediation logic.

Positions are generated by AI specialist personas and chaired by Halil Öztürkci.

Panel composition

  • Scout (AI panel role)Scout identified 5 candidate signals.
  • Linker (AI panel role)Linker evaluated 5 relation judgments.
  • Evidence Auditor (AI panel role)Evidence Auditor recorded 12 evidence signals; 7 gaps.
  • Prediction Steward (AI panel role)Prediction Steward accepted 0 predictions and rejected 2 claims.
  • Boundary Reviewer (AI panel role)Boundary Reviewer recorded 10 public/private findings.
  • Arbiter (AI panel role)Arbiter produced 5 decision envelopes.

Key disagreement

Scout (AI panel role)

Reported Bitcoin loss and address totals are attribution estimates rather than audited victim totals, and one older firmware version warrants conservative review. | Merged related signal (candidate-2): Do newly reported exploitation attempts against SAP Commerce Cloud require immediate patching and compromise assessment? | Merged related signal (candidate-6): How should SafePal respond to exposed customer contact and purchase information? | Merged related signal (candidate-7): What must an Azure tenant validate to contain and recover from privileged identity compromise?

Arbiter outcome

Arbiter outcome: new decision record. The replacement action is directly supported because firmware updates protect only future seed generation and cannot repair existing weak-entropy seeds. The missing vendor advisory affects exact scope wording, not the core remediation, and no existing record was retrieved.

Candidates considered

Considered 5 candidates · opened 1 · 4 not opened (4 other)

Considered, not opened

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06

What is uncertain

Missing

The exact affected scope remains unverified because the authoritative Coinkite advisory is absent.

The packet reports Mk2/Mk3 firmware 4.0.1–4.1.9 as potentially affected, while one investigation also includes Mk2/Mk3 4.0.0; treat 4.0.0 as requiring conservative review.

The precise effect of at least 50 independent private dice rolls and a strong, unique BIP-39 passphrase also requires confirmation against the advisory. Reported loss and address totals remain attribution estimates, not audited victim counts.

07

What evidence is missing

Missing

The packet does not include Coinkite’s authoritative advisory, so its exact model, creation-time firmware, Edge firmware, dice-roll, and BIP-39 passphrase rules cannot be checked directly.

For any individual wallet, a scope decision also requires reliable records of the Coldcard model, firmware present when the seed was generated, and whether at least 50 independent private dice rolls or a strong, unique BIP-39 passphrase were used.

Reported Bitcoin loss and address totals are attribution estimates rather than audited victim totals, although those totals are not needed to justify replacing a potentially weak seed.

08

What would change this

Under review

The scope changes if Coinkite’s authoritative advisory expands or narrows the reported model, firmware, Edge firmware, dice-roll, or BIP-39 passphrase boundaries.

For a specific seed, verifiable creation records showing that it falls outside the authoritative affected scope—or satisfies an authoritative entropy qualification—would remove or reduce the replacement trigger.

The core replacement decision would change only if authoritative technical evidence showed that updating firmware can repair the entropy of an already-generated seed and its derived keys; the evidence currently cited says it cannot.

09

What to watch next

Under review

Watch Coinkite’s authoritative advisory for revisions to the Mk2/Mk3 4.0.1–4.1.9, Mk4/Mk5 before 5.6.0 or Edge 6.6.0X, and Q before 1.5.0Q or Edge 6.6.0QX boundaries.

Seek explicit clarification on Mk2/Mk3 4.0.0 and on the qualifications for at least 50 independent private dice rolls and a strong, unique BIP-39 passphrase.

Track each identified seed through offline recovery testing and completed fund migration; any confirmed in-scope seed that still controls funds triggers immediate replacement and migration.

Sources & context

Evidence basis

4 references
Context
Tonight, run three parallel tracks: - **Coldcard:** For the specified vulnerable firmware generations, generate a new se…

Tonight, run three parallel tracks: - **Coldcard:** For the specified vulnerable firmware generations, generate a new seed using corrected firmware or another trusted device and migrate funds immediately; firmware updates cannot repair an a…

Observed 18 Aug 2026
Context
**Coldcard — FACT:** Coinkite’s advisory identifies seeds generated on **Mk2/Mk3 firmware 4.0.1–4.1.9**, **Mk4/Mk5 befor…

**Coldcard — FACT:** Coinkite’s advisory identifies seeds generated on **Mk2/Mk3 firmware 4.0.1–4.1.9**, **Mk4/Mk5 before 5.6.0 or Edge 6.6.0X**, and **Q before 1.5.0Q or Edge 6.6.0QX** as potentially affected. Its risk qualification exclud…

Observed 18 Aug 2026
Context
Summary: Coldcard is today’s most irreversible risk: Coinkite’s advisory indicates affected seeds must be replaced, not …

Summary: Coldcard is today’s most irreversible risk: Coinkite’s advisory indicates affected seeds must be replaced, not merely patched. CISA-confirmed PTC exploitation and reported SAP exploitation attempts demand compromise assessment, alt…

Observed 18 Aug 2026
Revision trail

Public value history

1 event on record
1 value version · 1 update · 0 predictions
  1. 18 Aug 2026Initial public guidanceCurrent guidance

    Created the first public value version for this Decision Record.

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